MANILA, Philippines — Don’t put away the umbrella just yet.
Filipinos can expect a classic mix of sunshine, clouds, sudden rain showers and thunderstorms today, Monday, Sept. 28, and tomorrow, Tuesday, Sept. 29, according to the latest weather outlook from PAGASA.
The ITCZ remains the dominant weather system affecting large portions of the country, bringing wetter conditions particularly to the Visayas and parts of Mindanao.
Cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast over most of the Visayas today, along with Caraga, Northern Mindanao, the Zamboanga Peninsula and Palawan.
Other areas may enjoy partly cloudy to cloudy skies for much of the day, but isolated rain showers or thunderstorms remain possible.
For Tuesday, the wet-weather pattern is expected to persist over Caraga, Northern Mindanao and most of the Visayas. The rest of the country may again experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies, with isolated showers or thunderstorms more likely during the afternoon and evening.
That means a bright morning does not necessarily guarantee a dry afternoon.
PAGASA expects localized thunderstorms to develop as temperatures rise during the day. These may bring sudden heavy rain, lightning and strong wind gusts even in areas that initially experience fair weather.
Commuters should therefore prepare for abrupt changes in road conditions, particularly during the afternoon rush. Heavy downpours can quickly reduce visibility and make roads slippery, while low-lying communities may experience localized flooding.
The latest outlook also points to more unsettled weather later in the week, with a potential weather disturbance east of the country possibly enhancing cloudiness and rainfall over parts of the Visayas and Mindanao.
At the same time, PAGASA is closely monitoring the longer-term climate picture. The agency said the ongoing Strong El Niño is expected to intensify into a Very Strong El Niño between September and December and could persist into the first half of 2027. While El Niño generally favors warmer and drier conditions over much of the Philippines, PAGASA stressed that short-lived episodes of heavy rainfall can still occur.
For now, the advice is to stay weather-wise: bring an umbrella, check local forecasts before traveling and keep away from rivers, creeks and other waterways whenever thunderstorms bring heavy rain.
In short, expect a weather day that can change its mind before you do.
